Inside Goldman's Nuclear Power Symposium: Five Key Takeaways

The inaugural Goldman Sachs Nuclear Power Symposium took place on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, featuring keynote speeches from executives across the uranium and nuclear power complex as the industry positions itself to power America's grid for the surging electricity demand from AI data centers and other electrification trends. 

The event included more than a dozen sessions with industry leaders focused on the nuclear outlook, supply chain readiness, the regulatory environment, the latest on Westinghouse's large nuclear reactor design, the AP1000, and smaller nuclear reactor deployment timelines. 

Goldman analysts, led by Brian Lee, summarized the Symposium into a list of takeaways that offer a clear snapshot of how industry insiders view the nuclear power complex and the uranium market today, and where both appear to be headed: 

1. AP1000 – Expect supply chain mobilization in 2026. Based on comments from companies such as CW and others, there is an expectation for orders for AP1000's to occur in 2026, with Poland and Bulgaria as the key near-term opportunities. Within the US, there remains a focus on establishing supply chains to support a future FID. CCJ also sounded constructive on activity levels remaining elevated.

2. Uranium – Pricing to remain on upward trajectory. Given current supply/demand dynamics supported by restarts, life extensions, uprates, and current reactors under construction, as well as limited near-term supply anticipated to come online, there remains an expectation for continued upward pressure to uranium prices over the near- and long-term. While spot prices are likely to remain volatile, a key area of focus remains utilities looking to contract at or above replacement volumes, which has yet to occur recently. Additionally, there is an expectation for term prices to continue to gradually trend higher, with CCJ noting a view of $120/lb midpoint implied in its floor/ceiling levels in contracts.

3. Supply chain – Activity levels healthy and readiness in focus. Discussions from supply chain players such as CW and MIR pointed to continued readiness to support a ramp in activity from both a traditional reactor standpoint as well as SMRs nearing commercialization. CCJ noted current ability for 4 AP1000's a year, with ability to scale over 5 years to 20 units a year. Additionally, there continues to be a cohesive effort from other players such as reactor technology providers to address key potential bottlenecks as well as order long lead time items in advance to reduce potential future constraints.

4. Regulatory – Accelerating the path to market. A key theme from the discussion with the NRC focused on removing impediments to advancing nuclear energy in the US. In particular, the NRC is looking at ways to streamline processes, remove legacy approaches that are less relevant given technology advancements and learnings, and is also focused on reducing frictions in areas that have no or minimal impact to nuclear reactor safety to help drive timeline efficiencies. Additionally, the NRC remains active on expanding licensing pathways to provide more flexibility to new emerging technologies while also aiming to reduce costs to applicants.

5. Utilities – Federal support is top priority for newbuild. Our conversations with SO and DUK both highlighted the need for federal support to mitigate the significant risk associated with new nuclear, including cost, construction, and credit risk, with less optimism on hyperscalers potentially warehousing the risk highlighted by SO. There remains debate around the value proposition of SMRs vs. AP1000s, with neither company willing to take first of a kind risk, seemingly edging AP1000s as the more attractive option, particularly given DUK's permitting/licensing position, and SO's more recent experience building AP1000s.

Lee told clients on Thursday that across his nuclear coverage, he remains constructive on Buy-rated Cameco (CCJ) and Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC) as the most preferred ways to gain exposure to the nuclear investing theme, along with Mirion Technologies (MIR) in multi-industrials and Buy-rated Duke Energy (DUK) in utilities as a potential long-term leader in nuclear.

In a separate note by Lee earlier this year, the analyst pointed to his uranium supply and demand model for global announcements of new reactor builds, as well as the refinement of supply-side estimates, resulting in an increase in the cumulative net deficit to 211 million lbs between 2025 and 2045 (view report here).

We've seen a flurry of SMR developments over the last several months:

• Jensen To Rogan: "Next 6-7 Years You Will See A Bunch Of Small Nuclear Reactors"

• Small Modular Reactor Developers Push New Partnerships And Use Cases

• "Demand For Critical Isotopes Rising, Supply Limited": Oklo Lands First NRC License & Another DOE Milestone

And other developments:

• US Is Rapidly Expanding Its Nuclear Supply Chain: It's Not Nearly Fast Enough

• Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain Advancing Rapidly As Leading Reactor Developer X-energy Files For IPO

What is clear to us is that the Trump administration is backing nuclear power generation to help meet the surging electricity demand of AI data centers, reshoring trends, and the electrification of the economy.

Nuclear energy is shaping up to be one of the clear winners not just of the AI investing cycle but also of the re-industrialization of the nation, a theme we first initiated in December 2020. 

Professional subscribers can read the full "Nuclear Power Symposium" note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal