Escalation Trap: Misreading Iran's Internal Power Dynamics

All available evidence strongly suggests that Iran's government and regional and civic leaders have rallied around newly chosen Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said to be even more 'hardline' than his slain father. Previously we highlighted the assessment of the NY-based Soufan Center to say "experts and global officials are quick to point out that all layers of Iran's existing power structure oppose US influence in Iran and the broader region. Regime officials differ only by degree, and the opportunities to mimic the transition achieved in Venezuela are narrow."

Trump has made clear this pick for supreme leader is "unacceptable"; however, in his most recent Monday statements the US President refused to answer when a reporter asked whether the younger, newly installed Khamenei has a target on his back.

In Tehran, to the surprise of many observers in the West a massive rally was held in support of the new supreme leader. It's yet another sign the Iranian government doesn't seem close to collapsing.

State media described on the same day similar rallies were held in other major Iranian cities, including Shiraz, Kerman, Ahvaz, Tabriz, Hamedan, and Ardabil - even as many of these places are under ongoing bombardment.

The Iranian state and at least some significant sectors of the Iranian population are in full 'defiance' mode, vowing to control the outcome of the war. As we highlighted earlier: IRGC Says Iran, Not US, Will Determine War's End As Trump Threatens Strikes '20 Times Harder' If Hormuz Transit Blocked.

Iran state media highlighted this theme of defiance and resolve against Washington and Israel, doing 'man on the street' interviews during the Monday Tehran demonstration. 

"We lost our beloved Leader while he was leading our caravan against the arrogant powers of the world. The wound is too deep, but now there is reassurance in the form of the new Leader, his worthy successor, who will take the mission forward," a participant told PressTV.

In so many ways the US administration failed to accurately assess the internal dynamics of the Iranian state and society.

Even prior to the start of the US-Israeli attack on Feb. 28, there had been huge pro-government demonstrations, despite the prior massive January anti-regime demonstrations and deadly clashes with policy and security services. Mainstream press almost exclusively covered the anti-Tehran side of things, with opposition activist lobbies outside the country dominating the airwaves. So this might be news to most Americans.

This served to create a narrative confirmation feedback bias, where US leaders were quick to declare the "Iranian people" needed "help" and that massive regime decapitation strikes might lead to people in the streets quickly overrunning government ministries. But that never materialized - not even an inkling of it, based on all available evidence.

Trump had optimistically expressed that a Delcy Rodriguez replacement-type figure could emerge out of the ashes, as in Venezuela. In terms of failed expectations, it has a ring of Dick Cheney's infamous "We will, in fact, be greeted as liberators" phrase issued three days before Bush's Iraq invasion, now widely mocked in hindsight for its naivety.

Former CIA officer on misreading internal dynamics in Iran:

John Kirikau says “Everyone is misreading what’s really happening in Iran. #iran #IranWar pic.twitter.com/jhhe9ZmGjN

— Blake S. Taylor Investigations 🚫 (@YoungGun8140) March 9, 2026

But what we are likely going to continue to see is summed up in an international relations concept which is so basic and foundational (in terms of being entirely predictable as 'blowback) that it even has its own Wikipedia page: the rally 'round the flag effect. 

A simple definition is the psychological and political phenomenon which describes the unification of citizens and societies behind national leaders and institutions in a time of extreme crisis or external threat, such as war or invasion by a foreign power. Importantly, this trend inside Iran had shown signs of taking effect far prior to the start of Trump's Operation Epic Fury. As one December 2025 in-depth survey of public opinion inside Iran conducted by the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy demonstrated, the rally 'round the flag effect was already especially acute in the wake of the June war. It found:

Majorities in Iran did not see the Twelve-Day War in June as a defeat but instead said their country effectively defended itself and withstood the attacks. Nine in ten said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' effort to punish Israeli attacks by firing missiles into Israel was successful. Four in five thought Iran’s government succeeded in preventing food and fuel shortages during the war. 

Another summary conclusion section of the survey, called Political and Social Conditions After the War, pointed to Tehran leadership having legitimate popularity, but notably prior to the January economic crisis and collapse of the rial. The University of Maryland study found:

Attitudes toward President Pezeshkian were as positive in October 2025 as they were in the honeymoon period right after he took office. Almost two-thirds regarded him favorably, and majorities remained confident he could advance most aspects of his agenda. Roughly half trusted the authorities of the Islamic Republic. Three-quarters of respondents still want policymakers to take religious teachings into account. However, two-thirds of respondents said that women who do not observe hijab should not be confronted. 

However, we await more potential public opinion surveys in the wake of the January economic crisis which led to thousands of deaths, mostly among anti-government protesters, but also allegedly hundreds of deaths and injuries within police and security ranks.

Waiving the flags even harder...

Powerful explosions erupt live on Iranian state TV — right from Revolution Square in Tehran

The Iranians didn't flinch, showing even more defiance and waving their country's flags even harder pic.twitter.com/Q17UvbUqI3

— RT (@RT_com) March 10, 2026

The Harder Successor problem in Iran is also a reality and could prove a significant hurdle for US-Israeli aims. Robert Pape, a political scientists and geopolitical commentator of the University of Chicago has lately been coining the concept. He writes, "History shows that when leaders are killed at the start of conflicts, their successors often escalate to prove authority. It’s a pattern I call the Harder Successor Problem." Pape lays out the dynamics for an 'escalation trap' building regarding US-Israeli actions in Iran:

When an enemy kills a leader, the successor inherits a problem: They must prove they are strong enough to rule. Backing down early can look like weakness inside the regime and to rivals watching closely. So escalation often becomes politically necessary.

We've seen this dynamic repeatedly. Leadership decapitation is often expected to weaken regimes. But historically it frequently produces more hawkish successors, not moderates. The logic is internal legitimacy. New leaders especially face pressure from:

• military elites
• revolutionary factions
• rivals inside the regime

All are watching closely to see if the successor is strong or weak. Early escalation can secure authority.

"That is why leadership decapitation at the start of wars often fails to shorten conflicts," continues Professor Pape. "Instead it can lock both sides into longer, more dangerous escalation cycles. The political incentives push toward toughness."

This war--in fact, much of US policy toward Iran under this administration--has seemingly hinged on a fundamental misunderstanding of Iranian thinking.

It was never likely they would bend to pressure at the negotiating table. Nor are they likely to crack under fire. pic.twitter.com/XMPzZbozAL

— Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) March 10, 2026

Pape aptly points out, "Understanding these internal political pressures is critical for predicting escalation."