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"I Think We've Won" Trump Says As Iran Refuses Hormuz Talks, Houthis Threaten Red Sea Strait

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Mar 20, 2026 - 08:30 PM

Summary

  • CBS reporting 'heavy preparations' for ground troops as Trump says 'no ceasefire' for now; Trump calls NATO a 'paper tiger'; says "close to meeting our objectives", offramp?

  • IRGC contradicts Bibi: says missile production is ongoing, is of "no concern" - even as IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naeini is reported killed.

  • Energy war ongoing: Major sites damaged across the region - Haifa refinery hit, Qatar LNG output cut 17%, Kuwait facilities ablaze.

  • Kharg Island escalation looms: Trump admin weighing seizure of Kharg Island to reopen Hormuz; Thousands of Marines in route, reports of low US jet strafing runs over strait.

  • Signal of zero restraint from Ayatollah & FM: Iran sends warning if energy sites are hit again, leadership structure grows opaque; supreme leader says enemies will be denied security.

  • Chokepoint concerns in Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb send Brent and WTI prices higher in late afternoon trading 

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Trump: No Ceasefire, We've Won, 'Other Nations - Not US - Must Guard Strait'

More somewhat confusing rhetoric on Iran plans from Trump: He said late in the afternoon Friday US strikes on Iran are "weeks ahead of schedule" - but caveated that he expects oil prices to surge more than they have. He repeatedly emphasized that he does not want a ceasefire - "we’re not looking to do that" - while leaving the door open to dialogue, insisting talks don't necessarily require halting the fighting. He said all this while also proclaiming "I think we've won." He also expressed he thinks Israel will wind down the war when the US does.

Trump asserted further that Iran's military has been severely degraded, saying it has "no radar, spotters, aircraft" and that key leaders have been killed, concluding: "from a military standpoint Iran is finished" and "I think we’ve won." He also said Israel would be ready to end the war when the US does, noting both countries "want more or less similar things."

Late in the day Friday Trump followed his verbal comments to reporters with this:

Oil plunged immediately after the latest Trump statement went out:

"NATO could help us, but they so far haven’t had the courage to do so. And others could help us, but we don’t use it," he said. "At a certain point, it’ll open itself." Again, some confusing messaging to say the least...

"I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know, you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side," he said. "We’re not looking to do that."

Trump hinted at possible escalation options around Kharg Island—“I may have a plan or I may not”—while accusing Iran of "clogging up" Hormuz. He also continued to berate Tehran leadership as "thugs and animals" - and praised Secretary of State Marco Rubio for doing a "fantastic job." Meanwhile Iran too is saying it is not ready for ceasefire or dialogue (at least in its public statements), and has expressed intent on exacting revenge. All of this means: no offramp yet in sight amid fresh reports that 'heavy preparations' for ground forces are being planned: "Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran, multiple sources briefed on the discussions told CBS News." More from CBS: "Senior military commanders have submitted specific requests aimed at preparing for such an option as President Trump weighs moves in the U.S.-Israel-led conflict with Iran, the sources said."

Fearless, Greek-owned Panamax bulk carrier transits Hormuz Chockepoint 

The Liberia-flagged, 81,713-dwt bulk carrier Giacometti (IMO: 9615377) has become the first Greek-owned vessel to successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz with its Automatic Identification System active since March 2, according to maritime shipping news and intelligence outlet Lloyd's List.

The Panamax bulk carrier transited westbound into the Middle East Gulf and was the first vessel to do so since the Panama-flagged MLS Onyx (IMO: 9373618) on March 5. 

Still tanker flows remain mute at the end of the week. 

Iran Refuses Hormuz Talks As Houthis Threaten Bab el-Mandeb Chokepoint

Brent crude futures are above $110/bbl, and WTI futures are inching closer to triple-digit territory as traders fret over a weekend of chaos across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf area following this week's targeting of upstream energy assets.

The latest headline to hit is that Iran is unwilling to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint while under attack, according to Bloomberg News.

  • IRAN SAID TO STICK TO HARDLINE POSITION ON STRAIT OF HORMUZ

With one maritime chokepoint in focus, we shift our attention to another: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

A report from Russian media outlet RIA Novosti states that Yemen's Houthi rebels are considering blocking commercial shipping traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

RIA Novosti continued:

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthis' political bureau, said that if the group were forced to close the strait, it would only attack vessels belonging to states that carry out aggression against Iran, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq.

He noted that the movement is considering all possible scenarios to support Iran in its confrontation with the United States and Israel.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, serves as a vital corridor for global trade, particularly oil and gas shipments between Europe and Asia.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, accounts for about 10% to 12% of global trade and serves as a key route for energy shipments to Europe.

With Hormuz partially paralyzed, Saudi Arabia has shifted crude flows from the Hormuz area to the East-West pipeline and onward to Red Sea ports for loading onto tankers.

Yet another maritime chokepoint becoming clogged would expand the conflict area and could further send energy markets into a tailspin.

Trump Blasts 'Paper Tiger' NATO; Three More Warships Dispatched to Mideast

The President has again expressed his frustration at lack of direct NATO participation in a plan to open up the Strait of Hormuz. He declared the US has "militarily WON" - and lambasted lack of allied interest in a "simple military maneuver" to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, oil is rising on news of a second massive Marine deployment toward Gulf in a week, WSJ is reporting:

The Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, even as President Trump insists he won’t put American boots on the ground in Iran, according to U.S. officials.

Roughly 2,200 to 2,500 Marines from the California-based USS Boxer amphibious ready group and 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are heading to the U.S. Central Command, responsible for all American forces in the Middle East, the officials said.

Crude Futures as WSJ headline hit...

IRGC Says Missile Production Intact, Contradicting Netanyahu 

On day 21, the Iran war shows no signs of abating. Iran’s IRGC spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naeini was reportedly killed in an Israeli overnight strike, another high-level hit as the decapitation campaign grinds on.

However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Friday that the Islamic republic has continued to produce missiles despite the war with Israel and the United States. This directly contradicts Israeli PM Netanyahu's assertions from the day prior, where he said both missile production capacity and uranium enrichment capability have been destroyed. Netanyahu had claimed, "Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium and manufacture ballistic missiles."

"Our missile industry deserves a perfect score...and there is no concern in this regard, because even under wartime conditions we continue missile production," IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naini said according to Fars.

Energy Complexes From Gulf to Israel Burning; Casualties Mount

The energy war continues to be front and center. Israel confirmed major Thursday Iranian strikes hit its Haifa refining complex, damaging critical infrastructure, and leaving many in the area without power. Also, the attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility is expected to slash LNG export capacity by roughly 17%. Kuwait hasn't been spared either, with its massive Mina al-Ahmadi refinery hit for a second straight day, with fires ripping through processing units.

Elsewhere, Bahrain says it has faced over 140 missiles and 240 drones since the war began, underscoring the scale of Iran’s regional barrage. 

Across the region, escalation is bleeding into civilian life even in countries not directly part of the conflict. The biggest Muslim holiday of the year, Eid, is being celebrated, and in Iran the Persian New Year "Nowruz" is unfolding under air raid sirens, also with fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Syria. Currently Palestinians are being barred from Al-Aqsa during Eid. Casualties continue to mount with over 1,400 reported dead in Iran, including 204 children per the Red Crescent - and more than 1,000 killed in Lebanon.

Signs of US Plans to Take Kharg Island

But the real escalation risk surrounds what Washington's next move may be, as the Trump administration is actively weighing seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s key export hub, in a desperate effort to force Hormuz back open. One source put it bluntly to Axios: "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island, and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations." For all the bravado and rhetoric, some analysts see the situation as a classic escalation trap.

But the report says no final decision has been made, but the direction of travel is clear. "He wants Hormuz open… If he has to take Kharg Island… that’s going to happen," one senior official said, while acknowledging a coastal invasion remains on the table.

The Wall Street Journal in fresh reporting sees signs that an operation is already underway: "The U.S. and its allies have intensified the battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending low-flying attack jets over the sea lanes to blast Iranian naval vessels and Apache helicopters to shoot down Iran’s deadly drones, American military officials said." it writes.

via Telegram sputnik_africa

Iran Vows 'Zero Restraint' If Its Energy Sites Attacked Again

Here's what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted to X on Thursday: "Our response to Israel's attack on our infrastructure employed FRACTION of our power. The ONLY reason for restraint was respect for requested de-escalation. ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again. Any end to this war must address damage to our civilian sites."

And CNN reports Friday: "Mojtaba Khamenei, who has made no public appearance since being chosen to succeed his father, said in a written statement security must be denied to all Iran’s enemies."

Things are meanwhile getting more opaque in terms of leadership structure inside Iran: "Iran has not named replacements for the vast majority of senior officials killed by Israeli strikes since the conflict began on February 28," CNN reports.

Iran's strategy appears to be to survive while imposing severe high costs:

Intense Attacks on Israel Continue

There has remained heavy censorship in Israel amid the war, but various overnight reports suggested another past 12 hours of heavy Iranian missile bombardment of Israel. Times of Israel confirmed, though without much in the way of details that sirens have been constant around central and northern Israel.

There were at least half a dozen missile salvos on Israel since late last night. "A home in the central city of Rehovot is burning following an apparent cluster munition impact, rescue services say," TOI writes. "There are no immediate reports of injuries after Iran launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead at central Israel."

Flash90/TOI: The site of an Iranian missile impact in Rehovot, central Israel. 

One war observer who has regional contacts wrote on X the following account: "Israel has been pummeled all night. Based on my counts of alerts and reports of landings from open sources the number increased tonight, though there are no reports of casualties."

The journalist continues, "My Whatsapp groups are filled with people having breakdowns after not sleeping for two weeks. In Jerusalem 4 alerts were heard in a 90 minute span. Iran has been able to increase the number of launches daily. Everyone seems angry at the IDF and Netanyahu for lying about the destruction of Iranian capabilities."

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