What's Going On? Series Of Unusual Aerial Incidents Leaves Turkey On Edge

On Tuesday the plane carrying Libya's army chief of staff of the Tripoli-based, UN-backed government, Mohammed al-Haddad, went down in a fiery crash soon after taking off from Ankara, as we earlier reported. Gen. Haddad along with seven others were killed, with no survivors.

Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya has since confirmed that the black box has been recovered from the wreckage, adding that the "examination and evaluation processes" has begun. But Turkish sources have been very quick to rule out terror bombing, sabotage, or foul play - saying that it was a mere technical failure.

The head of the Turkish Presidency's Communications Department, Burhanettin Duran, has said that the aircraft reported an electrical malfunction while requesting an emergency landing before contact was lost.

Further, an unnamed Turkish official has been quoted in Al Jazeera as saying "initial reports from the investigation rule out any sabotage" and that preliminary information points to a "technical failure." The plane's black box will reportedly be examined "in a neutral country" - according to fresh reports. But there are pressing questions.

Turkish and regional media describe that air traffic controllers had diverted the private jet to Ankara’s Esenboğa Airport, where emergency preparations for its landing were underway. However, the aircraft reportedly disappeared from radar screens during its descent.

Security camera footage aired by local television stations showed the night sky over in the area briefly lighting up, apparently the result of an explosion or ground impact.

In reaction to the perhaps hasty declaration that a group of top generals all died after a technical malfunction which sent their private jet spiraling to the ground, people have questions... including prominent Libyan and Turkish journalists and analysts.

Libyan journalist Khalil Elhassi questions, "Are they trying to convince us that the death of commanders in the Libyan army is something normal that happens for technical reasons?"

Bloomberg has noted that the Dassault Falcon 50 was 37 years old and was operated by Harmony Jets, according to data from FlightRadar24. The aircraft had recently flown into Ankara from Tripoli on Dec. 22.

Haddad's visit to Turkey was no ordinary visit. Middle East Eye reports, "The death of Libya's chief of staff, Mohammed Ali Ahmed al-Haddad, and four members of his entourage shocked Turkey, as Haddad was in the country on an official visit. Earlier that day, he had been hosted by his Turkish counterpart, Selcuk Bayraktaroglu."

Importantly, "The crash occurred a day after Turkey's parliament passed a decision to extend the mandate for the deployment of Turkish soldiers in Libya by two more years."

Middle East Eye has in a fresh report in the wake of the Libyan officials' plane downing laid out reasons why the Turkish public and officials are on edge, given Turkey is increasingly becoming a geopolitical flashpoint where unusual military-related incidents are occurring:

The crash has put many Turks on edge, coming after a series of incidents beginning with the crash of a Turkish military cargo plane in Georgia last month, which killed 20 soldiers and crew members.

Subsequently, three ships carrying Russian cargo were attacked near Turkish territorial waters in November and early December. Throughout December, at least three Turkish commercial ships have been targeted in the Black Sea, reportedly by Russian "kamikaze" drones.

In addition, at least three Russian-made drones have landed in Turkey, far from the Black Sea coast, reaching areas near Ankara where sensitive Turkish defence companies are located.

Turkish nationalist leader Devlet Bahceli, a key member of the ruling coalition and head of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), said on Wednesday that the timing of the Libyan crash was "thought-provoking", as it came amid deepening dialogue between Turkey and Libya and coordinated efforts to defend mutual interests.

Even though there is no evidence of sabotage so far, some have raised the possibility of infiltration or electronic warfare attacks against the country by foreign actors, most prominently Russia and Israel.

The fact that Haddad headed up the army for the Tripoli-based government which is opposed by Russia is also interesting. Moscow is literally funding and weaponizing the rival government which holds the East as well as key oil facilities and export terminals, and many observers believe this is the basis for a looming new Libyan war.

For further crucial background on Haddad, his title as the Libyan Army's "chief of staff" is a reference only to the Tripoli-based GNA (Government of National Accord) - one among several rival governments controlling Libya, but which is backed by the UN and especially Turkey.

However, what can be seen as the most powerful military (and biggest land and resources holder) is the Eastern government, based in Benghazi, led by warlord and general Khalifa Haftar, backed by Russia.

Below- Blue: Turkish-backed GNA (or sometimes GNU). Yellow: Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army under his Benghazi government. Green: southern warlords and tribes hold control.

Haftar soon after the war to overthrow Gaddafi returned from decades in exile in Virginia, where he lived with his family within a mere miles from CIA headquarters in Langley. Turkey has long been supporting a proxy war in Libya, against Haftar's forces, and against Russian interests.

Though there could be plenty of evidence emerging pointing to an aerial accident or technical issue which brought down Gen. Haddad's plane on Tuesday, many Turks and Libyans alike might in their speculations immediately suspect that Russia or even Israel may have had something to do with it.