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Trump Says Iran 'Wants To Make A Deal' & Is 'Talking'; Top Envoys Reportedly Texting Messages

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Mar 16, 2026 - 04:30 PM

Summary:

  • Iran FM Araghchi and US envoy Witkoff have been in contact via text messages in recent days: Israeli media

  • Trump speculates on Iran's leadership, talks: Said "we don’t even know their leaders" - top Iranian officials - possibly even Ayatollah Khamenei - may be dead, while also claiming "they are negotiating" but may not yet be ready for deal.

  • Trump asked about Israeli nukes and escalation: "Israel wouldn't do that."

  • Trump reiterates military campaign continuing in full force, main efforts to Iran's threat to shipping

  • Trump presses for multinational Hormuz escort coalition as allies hesitate; Bessent says US allowing limited Iranian, Chinese, and Indian tanker transits “for now” to stabilize global supply.

  • Headlines, rumors fly on new Ayatollah's personal life & whether he's actually in charge.

  • Bessent downplays link to Trump-Xi summit, calling any potential delay “logistical” due to Iran war coordination needs.

  • Trump floated delaying March 31–April 2 Beijing meeting unless China helps reopen Strait fully, citing Beijing’s heavy reliance on Gulf oil.

  • Europe reluctant to join Hormuz operation, Germany outright rejects it alongside Italy and Greece: Trump warned of a "very bad" future for NATO if allies don't help reopen the strait. UK also says it won't be 'NATO-led'.

  • Iran rejects ceasefire, vows prolonged defense; selective Hormuz policy continues, with traffic still down 70-90% and only “friendly” vessels passing safely.

  • Gulf energy infrastructure under ongoing attack; regional proxies (Houthis, others) threaten further disruptions to bypass routes.

* * *

Iran FM Araghchi, US envoy Witkoff have been in Contact via Text Messages in Recent Days

Israel's Channel 12 is reporting this apparently lone line of Washington-Tehran communication, but at least it is something. President Trump seems to have referenced it while speaking with reporters earlier, saying the warring sides are "talking" - but it's unclear whether Tehran is ready for a lasting Truce. Indeed Tehran has lately been stating it wants to exact more of a cost on the United States.

This apparent confirmation of contact between Witkoff and Arachchi sent oil prices falling on the newswire headline:

Speculation, Propaganda Abounds on Khamenei's Sexuality, Ability to Lead

It is to be expected that during wartime, propaganda and psychological warfare will fly between warring enemies. That appears to be happening as more and more questions surround the mysterious supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei. There's an avalanche of speculation and headlines on Monday. For example:

President Trump has reportedly been briefed on intelligence that Iran’s regime’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who earned the nickname “the power behind the robes” while serving as his aging dad’s gatekeeper, has had a long-term sexual relationship with his childhood tutor and is probably gay.

Apparently his father harbored serious doubts about the younger Khamenei's abilities, and worried that he was "unqualified". Time wrote that "Khamenei was also aware of problems in Mojtaba’s personal life that reinforced his doubts about succession." Seizing on these reports and all the speculation, NY Post claims based on anonymous sourcing that "Trump couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud when he was briefed on the intel, according to sources." Whether any of this is true or not is another matter, and America's Middle East wars over the last two plus decades have shown during intense times of conflict, Western public audiences get inundated with all kinds of sensationalist claims. There are also persistent rumors the new Ayatollah could be dead after two weeks of heavy US-Israeli bombardment.

Trump says Iran Wants To Make Deal & they are "Talking"; Israel Won't Use A Nuke

President Trump said Monday that "numerous countries have told me they’re on the way" to help fully open the Strait of Hormuz - but at this moment it's unknown who these countries are. He has said Secretary of State Rubio will soon announce, but with no date given. 

Trump has also freshly stated of Iranian leadership after the initial decapitation strikes followed by two weeks of heavy bombing that "We don't even know their leaders," stressing that they might all be dead. He specifically mentioned that new Ayatollah Khamenei might be dead, but it's ultimately unknown. He further claimed "They are negotiating" but Trump doesn't know if Tehran is ready yet for some kind of deal to bring an end to the conflict. Oil prices immediately dropped on these headlines. And on this front, he reiterated that "when this is over, oil prices are going to go down very, very rapidly" once the war concludes.

Another couple of interesting points included mention of the Iranian opposition: "they can be brave but they are not stupid," Trump said. Also on Israel, Trump assures it would not use a nuclear weapon. When asked about Israeli nuclear weapons and escalation, Trump responded, "Israel wouldn't do that."

Trump says US "Hammering Iran" to Ease Shipping Concerns

President Trump has provided an update on the ongoing U.S. military campaign against Iran, describing it as continuing in full force over the past several days.

He claimed significant successes, including striking more than 7,000 targets across Iran, decimating the country's anti-aircraft equipment, and achieving a 95% reduction in Iran's drone attack capabilities.

Trump emphasized that Iran's missile and drone manufacturing plants have been heavily targeted, leaving the country with few missiles remaining and severely hampered ability to produce more: "hammering Iran's ability to threaten shipping."

Trump highlighted specific actions against Iran's naval and strategic assets, noting the destruction of more than 30 mine-laying ships and strikes on Kharg Island - described as largely destroyed except for the oil pipes area.

He warned that with one simple order, the remaining oil infrastructure there could be eliminated, underscoring efforts to undermine Iran's capacity to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 

He expressed uncertainty about whether mines have already been deployed in the strait and strongly urged other nations, including China and Japan, to assist in securing the waterway, noting that some countries have shown little enthusiasm for helping.

These comments reflect Trump's portrayal of a highly effective and intensifying operation amid the broader U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, while shifting some responsibility for regional stability to international partners.

Hormuz 'Selected Disruption'

The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz crisis remain in a tense selective-disruption phase rather than full closure, with Brent crude pulling back today (around $102 after earlier spikes) as markets digest weekend strikes and fresh US comments. The US precision bombing on Kharg Island hit only military assets (mines, missiles, air defenses) - leaving the oil export terminal (up to 90% of Iran’s loadings) untouched and operational. As Rabobank notes, “Trump was at pains to be clear that oil infrastructure was not targeted, but the implicit threat that it could be is an unsubtle one,” with Trump later joking about further strikes “just for fun.”

Tanker crossings via the Hormuz with AIS transponders. Now we've reported that some tankers have been turning off their transponders to go stealth through the waterway. 

Latest Bloomberg ship-tracking data shows the Strait, on either side, is a massive parking lot of tankers. This could take weeks, if not longer, to unclog.

The USS Tripoli (light carrier with ~2,500 Marines and F-35Bs) has been redeployed to the Persian Gulf, fueling speculation about potential boots-on-ground roles (securing Kharg or clearing northern approaches), which Rabobank flags as a “major escalation.” Limited Iranian attacks hit US-aligned Gulf oil assets over the weekend, and Fujairah port saw fresh strikes today. Iran’s selective policy holds: traffic is still down 70-90%, but “friendly”/neutral vessels (Iranian, Chinese, Indian, Pakistani) continue limited transits. The standout today remains the Pakistan National Shipping Corp tanker Karachi (Abu Dhabi crude) safely crossing with full AIS active — the clearest non-Iranian success yet.

Diplomacy & China

On the diplomatic front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning that the US is deliberately “allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz” and is “fine” with some Indian and Chinese ships moving through “for now… to supply the rest of the world.” He highlighted “more and more of the fuel ships start[ing] to go through” and a possible “natural opening” the Iranians are permitting - a tactical concession to stabilize global supply while full escorts remain “militarily” off the table for now.

Bessent said crude oil prices should fall "much lower" than $80 per barrel after the war is over, adding that when the war is over, the "world will be safer and we will be better supplied." 

Some Hormuz context:

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De-Escalation?

Glimmers of de-escalation persist, per Rabobank: Hamas (an Iranian proxy) called for Iran to cease attacks on neighbors (speculated as an off-ramp signal), Iran struck passage deals with India/Bangladesh, and FM comments framed the strait as “not closed to anyone other than the US, Israel and their allies.” Yet counters are loud - Houthis threaten Red Sea escalation (risking Saudi’s 5-7 mn bbl/day bypass pipeline), Trump rebuffs ceasefire (Iran demands US withdrawal + reparations), and prediction markets price ceasefire odds before month-end at just 14%. The WSJ reports the US is forming an international naval escort coalition, with Trump demanding “about seven” countries help.

That said, by the looks of it most of Europe wants to avoid what's looking like a recipe for another quagmire in the Middle East. Ironically, Iran is bordered by two countries which were subject of over two decades of US-led war and occupation.

For example, after Italy had earlier made very clear it will have no involvement, Al Jazeera reports:

The ⁠war ⁠in Iran has nothing to do with NATO, ⁠a German government spokesperson says, adding that Germany ‌would not take part in the war nor in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open through ⁠military means.

"As long ⁠as this war continues, there will be no participation, ⁠not even in ⁠any effort ⁠to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by military ‌means," the spokesperson said. Greece ⁠also will not ⁠engage in ⁠any military operations ‌in the Strait of Hormuz, ⁠Greek government spokesman ⁠Pavlos ⁠Marinakis said.

And Britain too while signaling openness says it won't be NATO-led:

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday Britain would not be drawn into a wider war in Iran but would work with allies on a "viable collective plan" to reopen the key Strait of Hormuz, though he acknowledged that would not be a simple task.

...Starmer told a press conference that reopening the strait was the only way to stabilize energy markets, and that he was talking to allies in Europe, the Gulf and the U.S. on a plan to secure freedom of navigation. He said it would not be a NATO-led mission.

The dominant pressure point is US-China leverage. Rabobank nails it: “Trump wants Hormuz open again. Xi wants guarantees that Gulf oil will continue to flow to Chinese refineries, Chinese industrial producers will have markets to sell to, and Chinese consumers will have food to import.” Speaking with FT on Sunday, Trump floated delaying the March 31–April 2 Beijing summit unless China helps reopen the strait, paraphrasing Connally: “it’s our war, but it’s your problem.” Bessent walked this back today as purely “logistical” (Trump may need to stay in DC for war coordination), not direct pressure — but the linkage and China’s heavy Gulf-oil dependence remain crystal clear. For Xi, the summit could become the moment Beijing quietly directs Tehran to ease restrictions… or risk Kharg-style escalation hammering China’s import-dependent industrial economy.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment of hardliner Mohsen Rezaei as military adviser adds hawkish continuity on the Iranian side. Overall, markets see a bullish crude tone from risks but “glimmers” of hope; the situation stays highly fluid — watch for coalition announcements, next tanker flows, or any Iranian response in the coming hours.

Polymarket odds on whether "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?" stand at around 14% as of 10:30 ET.

More Strait News

Tanker traffic on the key shipping lane in the Strait remains paralyzed. Last week, tankers began broadcasting "Chinese" on AIS as one way to transit the waterway.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported earlier that a Pakistan-flagged Aframax called "Karachi" hugged the Iranian coast in the Strait unscathed. It sailed from Fujairah in the UAE last month and now has a port call in Pakistan, according to ship-tracking data.

Overnight, a Marshall Islands-flagged, U.S.-owned bulk carrier transited the waterway, adding to signs that the chokepoint may be unclogging.

President Trump stated earlier that the "war will end soon."

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol commented on the 32-nation emergency SPR dump and how it has begun to have a "calming" effect on energy markets to begin the week:

Iran's Kharg Island export hub is a major focus for us, and what happens next, including what the Trump administration decides to do with it, remains in focus.

Rabobank analysts offered their take on Hormuz events:

The Strait of Hormuz stays under selective Iranian disruption rather than full closure. Traffic is down 70-90%, but vessels tied to "friendly" or neutral countries — especially China, Pakistan, India, and Turkey — continue limited transits.

Hormuz is all about transit flows at the moment, with some unclogging clearly underway and energy markets moving lower in direct response. The key question now is whether this is sustainable, and whether China joins Trump's naval coalition to fully reopen the Strait (read here). 

EARLIER...

President Trump and his top officials spent the weekend on the one hand touting the Iran campaign a decisive military win and supposed success, while on the other racing to assemble a naval coalition to force open Tehran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, all the while imploring other countries for help. Europe appears deeply reluctant, with some key NATO countries already slamming the door on this prospect.

"As far as I’m concerned, we have essentially defeated Iran," President Trump said in some of latest remarks aboard Air Force One. "They want to negotiate badly, as they should, but I don't think they're ready to do what they have to do... We will finish the job," he claimed.

Ceasefire Rejected

But then on Monday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected calls for a ceasefire, insisting Tehran intends to impose steep and bloody costs on the aggressors. "The reason we say we do not want a ceasefire is not because we are seeking war, but because this time this war must end in such a way that our enemies never again think of repeating these attacks," Araghchi said at a press conference.

Site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, AFP/Getty Images

"I think they have already learned a good lesson and understood what kind of nation they are dealing with." He also dismissed reports that Iran had quietly sought negotiations: "As we have said many times and I reiterated last night in an interview with an American network, we have sent no messages and do not request a ceasefire."

Still, Trump is pressing forward on plans for NATO to send allied ships. According to US officials cited in The Wall Street Journal, there are plans for as soon as this week to announce that multiple countries have agreed to join a coalition escorting ships through the strait. All of this, and especially a timeline, still seems up in the air.

And separately per Axios, the White House is simultaneously considering the far more aggressive option of seizing Iran's main oil export hub on Kharg Island, after much of it has been subject of heavy US bombing, which started overnight Friday, but reportedly left oil terminals and vital export infrastructure in place.

Boots on the Ground

There remains widespread speculation that this is what the multi-thousand strong Marine Expeditionary Force currently en route is all about, raising the states even higher.

A direct Kharg Island seizure would require American boots on the ground -  already as Iran's retaliatory blockade of the narrow strait has sent oil and gas prices climbing as a major share of global crude supply remains effectively frozen.

Allies on the Sidelines

This is apparently what's behind Trump's growing urgency - and some might day desperation - for allies to step up, with the US president having told European leaders there could be a "very bad" future for NATO if member states fail to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Financial Times.

Military Attacks

Iran meanwhile continues to send missile and drones on America's gulf allies and energy infrastructure, with Saudi Arabia saying it intercepted 61 drones over its territory since midnight, though potential impact sites of projectiles what got through weren't immediately disclosed.

Flights at Dubai International Airport have been suspended after a fuel take went up on flames. "An Iranian drone attack ignited a fuel tank at Dubai International Airport early Monday, authorities said, as Tehran continued to strike civilian infrastructure across the Persian Gulf," Washington Post reports. Fujairah has also been hit again.

The Israeli military has said Monday it has begun “wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure” in the Iranian cities of Tehran, Shiraz, and Tabriz simultaneously. It has vowed to keep hitting Iran "as long as needed" - suggesting no quick end amid the war's third week.

But Israel also faces unprecedented bombardment by Iran's sophisticated missile and drone arsenal. Israel’s Health Ministry has newly announced that at least 3,369 people, including civilians and military personnel, have been wounded and injured - with many hospitalized - since the war's start. At least a dozen people have been killed, but the true numbers could be significantly higher as Israel's military has censored a lot of wartime information.

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