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"Extremely Fragile Market": Traders Stunned As Over 40 S&P Names Tumble In 3-Sigma Move Today

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by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Feb 12, 2026 - 07:45 PM

With traders sitting on the verge of their seats, wondering which sector will trapdoor next in response to some AI disruption headline, here are some market thoughts tom Goldman's Ryan Shakey

The market remains extremely fragile and factor moves are extreme. More than 40 S&P names are having more than a 3 sigma move today (for context yesterday’s session was 15), that is the highest I can remember in a long time. No surprise to the defensive tilt today: Utes, Staples, Reits, and HC the top performing sectors vs TMT the worst performing. Breadth is deteriorating, 350 names are down on the day in the S&P w/ AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, and CSCO weighing on the index the most. Goldman's AI at Risk basket (GSTMTAIR) is having another 3 sigma move, -510bps lower today. 

Some pointing to this article as part of today’s recent AI related panic - Microsoft AI CEO says most white-collar jobs to be replaced with AI in 12 months; ‘models coding better than humans’

At a very high level, our desk started off relatively quiet (4/10), but activity has picked up considerably and question levels are the highest in two weeks. HFs and LOs are better for sale but on smaller skews – fatigue is kicking in from all these violent moves.

The biggest stand out in our flows is the lack or willingness to step in and defend any of these sharp AI related sell offs across ALL sectors. The few areas we do see buy tickets are in the cyclical/defensive pockets like Industrials, Staples, Utes, REITs, and Energy. 

Thoughts from across sectors

  • TMT: Everything lower outside of memory. Software, Internet, and newly today Media all under pressure. Winners today all getting sold in a risk off tape. 
  • Industrials: All about Transports {GSIDLTXA Index} today. CH Robinson having an 8 sigma move lower. AI has been making its way through sectors in the last week or two targeting various potential losers – this is clearly a turn vs. CHRW and peers viewed as AI winners. There is debate swirling whether CHRW could be bucketed as a medium-term loser from AI … using chatbots to match loads offers efficiencies (lower headcount) but commoditization enters the conversations. (Novak)
  • Fins: Alts have gone solidly in the red after starting up, while banks are starting to wobble here (we think super regionals has been an attractive hideout for people in Fins). Defensive REITs continue to move higher - The "new sector of the day" for fear of AI competition appears to be logistics/transports in Industrial. Everywhere, names previously thought of as AI winners are being rethought - valuation matters too. Earnings feedback you ask (so many wondering what was 'wrong' with these prints)? CBRE was resoundingly positive - evidently doesn't matter in this print (bulls insist it will at some point) (Degrasse)
  • Healthcare: CRO's have wound up in the AI at risk trade since PFE's announcement that they would be conducting a good portion of clinical trials using AI. Month to Date -32% in the space. ICLR -38% today also impacting this pocket. 

More in the full note available to pro subs.

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