Goldman Unveils 2026's Most Important Trade

It’s been three years since the launch of ChatGPT, and the AI (investing) revolution has continued to eveolve.

Both corporates and investors are extremely focused on how companies are using AI within their business and how those use cases are evolving.

In conference calls this earnings season, a large percentage of S&P 500 companies discussed AI specifically in the context of productivity and efficiency.

A recent survey of GS investment bankers found a 37% corporate adoption rate, and the corporate AI adoption rate among large firms indicated by Census Bureau surveys stands at 13%, although these surveys use a stricter definition of adoption.

Today, Goldman launches their US AI Productivity basket (GSXUPROD), composed of non-Tech and non-AI companies that have mentioned specific plans to implement AI into their workflows, allowing them to reduce costs and improve margins, across the categories below:

• Banks and insurance companies are extensively deploying AI to boost operational efficiency, automate routine tasks, and enhance customer interactions through AI-powered platforms and virtual assistants. Key applications span coding, institutional services, Fraud detection, credit, collections, marketing, and underwriting. Many firms view AI as a tool to augment human capabilities, support employees, and achieve cost reductions, while also piloting agentic AI for broader integration and managing headcount growth.

• Retailers and warehouse operators are deploying AI across various functions to enhance the customer journey through personalized shopping experiences, AI-powered search, and customer service assistants. AI is critical for optimizing supply chains, including "ship from best location" logistics, forecasting, and inventory management. Internally, AI automates operations in finance, HR, and technology, improves store efficiency through queuing detection and shelf space control, and boosts employee productivity with AI licenses for forecasting and automation agents. Proprietary warehouse execution systems are achieving double-digit productivity gains.

• The transportation and logistics sector is implementing AI to significantly enhance productivity, streamline operations, and reduce costs. Key applications include automating load building, quoting, inbound call handling, scheduling, and booking. AI is also used for developing intelligent digital twin systems, real-time route optimization, predictive customer experiences, and automating carrier check calls, invoice payments, and quote generation. Additionally, AI supports agent assistance tools, customer retention analytics, cybersecurity, line-haul planning, safety coaching, billing automation, and sales content creation.

• Healthcare services are leveraging AI for advanced clinical applications, including patient stratification, care management, and improving diagnostic accuracy through tools AI tools designed with a health care expertise. AI is also instrumental in automating administrative tasks, such as HIPAA-compliant note-taking and claims processing, and optimizing revenue cycle management to combat denials. The overarching goal is to enhance affordability, accessibility, and personalized care, ultimately improving both patient and provider experiences.

• The Restaurant industry is integrating AI primarily to automate ordering processes, particularly in drive-throughs, and to enhance overall operational efficiency. New AI restaurant-specific tools are improving throughput, accuracy, and consistency, leading to significant labor savings and reduced costs of goods sold. AI also provides data-driven recommendations to store managers for optimized operations and is utilized by developers to improve code quality and productivity.

We manually exclude: (1) companies that help enable others to integrate AI into their workflows or products; (2) companies that have highlighted the proprietary data they have allows them to be well positioned to integrate AI but have not yet proposed a legitimate implementation plan; (3) business categories we believe to be at risk to AI across consulting / content developers / legacy analytics / and single product or educational services.

Goldman trader Faris Mourad notes that being long a basket of US AI Productivity Beneficiaries is the most important 2026 trade.

The basket has underperformed the broader market year-to-date, even when excluding Mag7 companies:

The basket is broken into the following categories:

Here's the full breakdown of the AI Beneficiaries:

Banks & Insurance:

• JPM - JPMorgan is investing heavily in AI for productivity gains, with deep expertise predating the current generative AI boom, but focuses on tangible outcomes rather than theoretical savings, using AI as justification for constraining headcount growth while maintaining expense discipline.

• BK - BNY has embraced AI as a transformative technology with their platform "Eliza 2.0" and 117 AI solutions in production, including agents for business leads, code writing, payment processing, client onboarding, and reconciliations, plus over 100 digital employees working alongside staff.

• RKT - Rocket Companies has deployed AI agents that significantly enhance business operations, including a pipeline manager agent that ranks leads and increases conversions, a purchase agreement review agent that cuts processing time by 80%, and an underwriting agent that reduces task completion from 4 hours to 15 minutes, with AI enabling team members to handle 63% more loans than two years ago.

• AIG - AIG is strategically deploying GenAI solutions called "AIG Assist" across underwriting and claims processes to enhance data processing, reduce cycle times, and improve decision-making capabilities through automated extraction and analysis of unstructured documents.

• NP - Neptune operates as an AI-first company with AI models powering underwriting, quote conversion optimization, and renewal retention, enabling high efficiency with $2.5M revenue per employee and $1.5M adjusted EBITDA per employee.

• C - Citigroup has embedded AI across operations with nearly 180,000 colleagues using proprietary AI tools 7 million times, saving hours daily through automation, data analysis, and material creation, while launching agentic AI pilots and firm-wide AI integration efforts.

• BAC - Bank of America views AI as "enhanced intelligence" that supports teammates rather than replacing them, with their Erica platform handling 2 million daily customer interactions and expanding from 210 to 700 answerable questions, while AI applications span coding efficiency, institutional services, and require substantial data infrastructure investments.

• MS - Morgan Stanley is implementing AI across multiple use cases including DevGen.AI for code modernization, Parable for data analysis and summarization, and LeadIQ for AI-powered lead distribution to match client relationships with financial advisors, with these applications focusing on driving productivity and efficiency across the firm.

• UWMC - UWM introduced Mia, their Most Intelligent Agent, a generative AI loan officer assistant that has made over 400,000 calls on behalf of mortgage brokers, helping them reconnect with past clients for refinancing opportunities, with over 14,000 loans already closed and a 40% answer rate exceeding the forecasted 10-15%.

• ALLY - Ally Financial rolled out their proprietary AI platform called Ally.ai to 10,000 teammates to help streamline tasks, automate routine work and make more informed decisions as part of their expense discipline efforts.

• BFH - Bread Financial views AI as an opportunity to accelerate operational excellence by simplifying business processes, driving efficiency, deploying new capabilities, reducing risk, improving controls, and enhancing customer/employee experiences while accelerating innovation. They take a "fast follower" approach, learning from early adopters and focusing on AI use cases with highest business impact. The company already has over 200 machine learning models across credit, collections, marketing and fraud functions, plus 100+ processes enhanced with robotic process automation.

• CFG - Citizens Financial Group is implementing AI-enabled initiatives as part of their "Reimagine the Bank" program, representing approximately 50% of their strategic ideas to improve operations and customer experience, with technology investments planned over a three-year window.

• TFC - Truist is integrating AI-driven technology into new branches for smarter client engagement, using AI-enabled chat function "Truist Assist," and implementing AI across the company to improve efficiency, client-centricity, and revenue growth, with AI serving as the fuel for accelerating performance and ROTCE improvement.

Retail & Warehouses

• AMZN - Amazon is heavily investing in AI across multiple areas including AWS AI services (SageMaker, Bedrock), custom silicon (Trainium chips), AI agents (AgentCore, Strands), shopping assistants (Rufus), and various AI-powered features for commerce, advertising, and operations.

• WMT - Walmart is building AI agents into core operations, including four super-agents: Sparky (customer-facing assistant for shopping and discovery), an associate agent for scheduling and sales data, a supplier/seller/advertiser agent for managing onboarding and campaigns, and a developer agent to accelerate innovation and product launches.

• PSA - Public Storage is utilizing AI to directly provide customer service and optimize property staffing, reducing labor hours by over 30% while increasing employee engagement and lowering turnover, as part of their broader technology-based strategies across the organization.

• LINE - LinOS is Lineage's proprietary warehouse execution system that has been deployed in seven conventional sites, delivering double-digit productivity improvements in key metrics like units per hour, translating to higher output and lower unit costs, with 10 deployments expected by year-end and accelerated rollout planned for 2026.

• BBY - Best Buy is leveraging AI across multiple areas including AI-enhanced laptops with Copilot+ capabilities, Meta AI glasses partnerships, AI-powered search technology for their marketplace, and AI-focused advertising campaigns to drive customer awareness and engagement.

• TGT - Target has deployed over 10,000 AI licenses across their team to leverage AI and other tools for building and updating forecasts more accurately while spending less time creating them, with plans to invest further in deploying AI more fully across their organization to free up team members to spend more time bringing joy to guests.

• LOW - Lowe's utilizes AI in two key applications: the MyLowe's Companion app that helps associates provide customer support across departments, and FBM's AI blueprint takeoff technology that automatically extracts material quantities and measurements from digital construction plans for faster, more accurate project estimating.

• HD - Home Depot uses AI and machine learning for optimizing delivery through "ship from best location" technology, which determines optimal delivery modes to maximize speed and efficiency, and for improving search functionality on their digital platforms.

• WSM - Williams-Sonoma has implemented AI across three key areas: enhancing customer experience through AI-powered Customer Service Assistant and digital design tools, optimizing supply chain with end-to-end forecasting and inventory management, and automating internal operations across finance, HR, and technology, delivering measurable productivity gains and cost savings.

• W - Wayfair is leveraging AI across three strategic pillars: reinventing customer journey with personalized shopping experiences, supercharging operations through automated processes, and powering their platform ecosystem with enhanced supplier tools and search optimization.

• TSCO - Tractor Supply is implementing AI across three areas: enterprise software with AI modules from vendors, custom-built applications like GURA and Tractor Vision, and automation agents using OpenAI integration with over 1,500 users to streamline operations and provide immediate feedback.

• DRVN - Take 5 is testing AI-driven camera technology that detects queuing issues in real time, helping managers adjust staffing and workflow to move more cars efficiently and serve more customers.

Transportation & Logistics

• UPS - UPS uses AI in two main applications: next-generation brokerage capabilities that harness AI to digitally process over 90% of cross-border transactions, and Agentic AI integrated into customs brokerage to streamline formal entry processes and manage increased complexity from regulatory changes.

• XPO - XPO is implementing AI across five key areas: two for revenue generation (AI pricing bots and sales assistance tools) and three for cost savings (linehaul optimization, pickup/delivery route optimization, and dock efficiency). Their AI capabilities include reducing empty miles by 12%, cutting diversions by 80%, and improving overall productivity by 2.5 points in Q3.

• FDX - FedEx is leveraging AI to create an intelligent digital twin system that anticipates disruptions, provides real-time route optimization, and delivers predictive customer experiences, powered by 2 petabytes of daily data from 17 million packages and supported by new leadership focused on scaling AI across enterprise operations and exploring new revenue models.

• ARCB - ArcBest is implementing AI to enhance productivity, streamline operations, and reduce costs through automated processes including truckload quote augmentation that uses AI for load building, quoting, and emailing responses faster than humans, plus inbound call automation and scheduling/booking automation.

• JBHT - J.B. Hunt has deployed 50 AI agents across their business to automate tasks and streamline operations, achieving significant automation milestones including 60% automated carrier check calls, 73% auto-accepted orders, 80% automated invoice payments, 2 million annual automated quotes, and over 100,000 hours of annual automation across Highway, Dedicated and CE teams.

• LSTR - Landstar is actively implementing AI-enabled solutions across three key areas: customer service automation, agent assistance tools (like suggested pricing), and BCO retention analytics to predict driver departure signals, while also investing in AI infrastructure projects that drive revenue growth.

• ODFL - Old Dominion uses AI across multiple operational areas including cybersecurity email protection, line-haul planning for load optimization, safety coaching through Lytx camera video analysis, billing automation, sales content creation, and application development, with future research focusing on equipment utilization, predictive maintenance, mechanic training, and weather routing optimization.

• R - Ryder is deploying agentic AI technologies to improve service levels and effectiveness in their transportation management and brokerage operations, specifically for optimizing rates for customers, improving service levels, and enhancing freight bill audit and pay activities across supply chain, fleet management, and dedicated business segments.

• RXO - RXO has been developing AI and machine learning capabilities for years using proprietary data, implementing agentic AI solutions to streamline carrier inquiries, AI image solutions in Last Mile for delivery validation, AI-powered pricing models, and AI tools for code generation, all aimed at improving volume, margin, productivity, and service while freeing up employee time for customer solutions.

• SAIA - Saia has been investing in AI-based network optimization tools for several years to improve operational efficiency, including route planning, city operations management, staffing optimization, and linehaul network design to reduce freight handling touches.

• SNDR - Schneider National is deploying agentic AI across multiple business functions, achieving double-digit productivity improvements in logistics operations, with some areas seeing 50-60% efficiency gains, while expanding AI applications to transportation, support functions, and decision-making processes.

• WERN - Werner Enterprises has implemented AI automation across their business operations, achieving 40% cost reduction in back-office departments while maintaining service levels, with AI handling thousands of customer and driver interactions weekly through conversational AI and orchestrated intelligence systems.

• UBER - Uber is embedding Generative AI across its platform to enhance productivity, optimize operations, and deliver personalized consumer experiences, while also launching Uber AI Solutions that provides AI training work including model training, voice audio response rating, video annotation, and query response evaluation for customers globally.

Healthcare Services & Tech

• HCA - HCA Healthcare is implementing AI initiatives focused on revenue cycle management to combat payer denials and underpayments, plus piloting ambient AI documentation tools to help physicians create more complete, accurate, and timely clinical documentation.

• ELV - Elevance Health is deploying AI at scale across operations to drive affordability, accessibility, and personalized care, with over 10 million members having access to AI-enabled virtual assistants by year-end, and AI being embedded in clinical workflows, customer service, provider platforms, and administrative processes to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance member and provider experiences.

• DOCS - Doximity's AI suite includes DoxGPT with integrated drug reference providing instant peer-reviewed answers, AI Scribe for HIPAA-compliant ambient note-taking that tripled users in Q2, and AI-optimized integrated programs that represented 40% of bookings versus 5% last year, delivering superior ROI through automated optimization across their platform.

• ALHC - Alignment Healthcare uses AVA AI for clinical stratification and care management, with a centralized data architecture that provides cross-functional visibility to execute on star metrics and manage Medicare Advantage risk effectively.

• HQY - HealthEquity is leveraging AI technology for claims automation, service center operations, and member experience enhancement, with expedited claims processing using AI to automate adjudication, plans for Agentic AI in voice channels, and broader AI applications across repeatable processes to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

Restaurants

• YUM - Yum! Brands is implementing AI across multiple areas: Byte Coach delivers AI recommendations to store managers and is deployed in over 28,000 restaurants, with plans to add individualized guidance capabilities using operations, consumer feedback, and audit data. AI developer tools are used by one-third of developers for productivity gains, with plans to expand to substantially all Byte software developers by early 2026 for writing better, safer, and more efficient code. Voice AI is being implemented in Taco Bell drive-thrus, showing 14% growth from the previous quarter.

• SG - The document mentions the Infinite Kitchen, an advanced food automation technology developed by Spyce, which delivers faster throughput, improved accuracy and consistency, elevated food quality, approximately 700 basis points of labor savings, and nearly 100 basis points of COGS improvement compared to similar restaurants.

• CMG - Chipotle continues to invest in back-of-the-house automation, with Chippy automating the chip frying process (helping alleviate labor pressures with its ability to cook chips continuously throughout the day), and the latest version of the automated digital make line including Autocado, which cuts, cores, and peels avocados. The updated automated digital make line will be rolled out to the first restaurant in 2H24. The company also leverages technology around forecasting and deploying labor and recruiting new team members, as well as leveraging the rewards program with 40 million members to increase engagement.

• SHAK - As of 1Q24, kiosks are the largest and most profitable order channel for SHAK (currently in place in all domestic locations), with average order values a high-teens percentage over traditional In-Shack orders, as recent digital enhancement to the user experience focus on driving stronger up sell. The expansion of kiosks has enabled the company to test a new labor model that is more targeted in staffing needs while maintaining the guest experience. Going forward, the company plans on optimizing the kiosk experience to drive LTOs and premium items, with an update around wayfinding to be launched later in 2024.

• SBUX - In addition to a strong Mobile Order & Pay platform, SBUX is heavily focused on improving operational throughput via the roll-out of the Siren System, which features an ice dispenser, milk dispenser, and blenders all in one easy-to-reach place, easing congestion for baristas and improving wait times for customers. Over the past six months, the company has continued to fine-tune the equipment to unlock additional capacity at peak times, with an updated roll-out (Siren Craft System) coming to North America locations in the coming months. At stores where the updated Siren Craft System has been used, the increase in peak throughput is estimated to be worth 1% to same store sales annually. Further investments over the next three years will be around further digitizing the stores, to include digital menu boards, Deep Brew AI, and machine-learning platforms to fine tune store operations and provide customers with more personalized offers.

• WEN - FreshAi is Wendy's automated ordering technology used in drive-thru operations to deliver more consistent, high-quality interactions while improving upselling and productivity.

According to our GS equity portfolio strategy team’s framework, our GSXUPROD basket has a potential for change to baseline EPS from AI adoption via labor productivity that is higher than that of the Russell 1000 and S&P 500.

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