Here's What Goldman's Top Traders Think About The Market Ahead Of "Liberation Day"

Here is the latest weekly rundown of what the traders running the 6 main sectors on Goldman's trading floor think about the market and their respective sectors of coverage one day ahead of the highly anticipated Independence Day. 

Courtesy of the Goldman equities Sales and Trading desk, here is a summary on sector sentiment and standouts.

Quick GS Trading/Sector Specialist collab on sentiment, flows, views and more

Sentiment Trends represent a subjective desk view on MoM changes in investor sentiment. 

TMT – Peter Bartlett, Peter Callahan, Leyla Kamshad

1. What stocks are most topical / debated right now .. IBM (why so strong?) .. AMZN (back to mid-2021 levels) .. ACN (feedback? read-throughs?) .. TSM (what gets this back on track?) .. RDDT & APP (down 20-35% in March?) ..  T & VZ (how high can they go?)
2. Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc): Biggest inflection in Tech has been the de-rating of Mag 7 stocks with the Mag 7 down ~11% in March, worst month since Dec’22 [mix of GenAI debates, Tariff uncertainty, positioning / risk-off]. In fact, Big Tech is currently the most negatively correlated to Defensives that it has been in several years – a dynamic that has created a bit of a ‘where can I hide’ dynamic within TMT (.. and, in turn, has seemingly been a driver of flows outside of Tech – think nearly ~45% of S&P500 constituents flat/up on the year)
3. What catalysts matter most next month: earning season (NFLX kicks things off on 4/17) … Tariffs (4/2) ... Google Cloud Next (4/8-4/11)
4. What looks extended: Per 14-day RSIs … Overbought (RSI at/nearing 70+): VRSN, GRPN, IHS, T vs. Oversold (RSI <30):  MRVL, SLAB, KLIC, TER, SNX, NTAP, GLOB, EPAM, ACN, FIVN, CCOI, IT
5. What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on .. the month of March marked the 25th anniversary of the tech bubble bursting. The TLDR: “We continue to believe that the technology sector is not in a bubble and that there remain attractive investment opportunities. In line with our view on broader markets, however, we see benefits from diversification within technology, and beyond, to capture multiple growth opportunities” (Link)

Financials – Alex Mitola, Christian DeGrasse

1. What stocks are most topical / debated right now .. JPM (Valuation/Recession Fears), HOOD (retail slowdown), IBKR (valuation/retail slowdown), PLD (questioning 2H recovery), ALLY (Credit/NIM? Valuation), AXP (T&E, slowing business spend)
2. Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc) .. Capital markets (weak updates & JEF earnings), Consumer Finance & Lodging REITs (slower T&E spend data) Industrial REITs (tariff uncertainty, PLD CEO comments)
3. What catalysts matter most next month .. Earnings kick off with the Big Banks mid-April
4. What looks extended  .. Per 14day RSIs… BRO, MMC, BRK/B, AXS, HIG, TW, ICE look overbought and JEF, PJT, EVR, TROW, XYZ, EQIX, APLE look oversold
5. What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on .. Global trends and takeaways on Payments from Meeting with Worldpay (Link)

Healthcare – PJ Gallo, Jon Chan

1. What stocks are most topical / debated right now .. ABT, BMY, LLY, BDX, CNC, UHS, BMY, ABBV, MRK
2. Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc) .. A sharp refocus on Tariff risk to the sector vs. Modest softening on Medicaid Risks
3. What catalysts matter most next month .. .. Reconciliation Negotiations and impact on Medicaid-exposed Managed Care and Hospitals, MA Final Notice, Tariff Clarity
4. What looks extended  .. SMID Biotech and Tools Bearishness
5. What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on .. Europe Tariff Exposure to Healthcare, Potential Options for Cost Savings within Healthcare

Consumer – Eric Mihelc, Scott Feiler

1. What stocks are most topical / debated right now .. CCL, HLT, SBUX, CMG, WING, NKE, DECK, GAP, DKS, KDP
2. Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc) .. A much more guarded tone on travel stocks, airlines especially, followed by hotels
3. What catalysts matter most next month .. The tariff day is of course a huge focus for most of consumer. Those looking to be constructive will look to the later Easter this year vs last to benefit April trends
4. What looks extended  .. Per 14day RSIs … BJ, DG, DLTR, SIG, WOOF, DRI, MNST, MDLZ look overbought vs. TGT, WSM, FL, VFC, ANF, DECK, NKE, LVS, FRPT look oversold
5. What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on .. WMT’s investor day on April 8th-9th where they will discuss alternative profit streams, a focus on automation and of course could talk to the health of the consumer.

Industrials/Energy/Utes – Amanda Ross, Ryan Novak

1. What stocks are most topical / debated right now .. Housing (stocks at lows, valuation reset with rates lower at the beginning of the Spring selling season) … transports (are we at trough of a freight recession or more mid cycle & fairly valued) … DOGE names worth buying the dip (valuation collapse) or pressing (earnings risk becoming increasingly visible) … Gas vs. oil with gas names/commodity at highs; oil the opposite … copper names with copper at all-time highs … AI / data center oversold or negative near term catalyst path?
2. Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc) .. .. Tariffs becoming reality (autos), continued sell off in AI/data center names, airlines from best supply / demand environment in history to sharply softening demand
3. What catalysts matter most next month .. Tariffs (certainty or further lack of clarity); new macro data points ISM, auto sales, etc.; off cycle / early earnings AYI, MSM, GBX, RPM, DAL, FAST, ALV, AA, CSX, KMI, DHI, KNX, PNR, PPG
4. What looks extended  .. AZO, ORLY, RSG, ROL, AM, ED, CVX, DTE, HEI ..
5. What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on .. Catalyst path in AI/data center names, if Musk achieves $1tn cut in spending – what could that mean in reality, Russia/Ukraine resolution implications

Special Situations – Peter Davis, Andrew Ramirez

1. What situations are most topical / debated right now .. DFS/COF (Focus on Deal Path/Standalone Value), IPG/OMC (Spread Factors), AZEK/JHX (Deal Path/Borrow Cost), WBA (Spread Factors)
2. Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc) .. DFS/COF - The path to the deal closing remains complex after reports over the month suggested that DOJ staffers expressed concern over the anti-competitiveness the deal could bring to the subprime sector. The deal remains subject to Federal Reserve & OCC approvals (link)
3. What catalysts matter most next month .. HEES (HSR Expires), BERY/AMCR (EC Phase I Expires)
4. What are the most popular Arb names  .. Over the past month popular Arb names include DFS/COF, IPG/OMC, HES/CVX, CHX/SLB, DNB, WBA
5. What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on .. GIR’s Ryan Nash hosted a call with an M&A expert to get their updated views on the COF/DFS deal in light of the recent reporting that the DOJ may find the deal anti-competitive (GS Link) (BBG Link)

More in the full report available to pro subs.