Price, Positioning, Policy, Politics, & Profit Trends: How Well Do You Score On BofA's Year-End Quiz?

BofA's Chief Strategist, Michael Hartnett, drops 25 questions on Price, Positioning, Policy, Politics & Profit trends in 2025 & beyond...

Answers at the bottom (no cheating!).

1. 2025 saw a boom in AI capex by tech giants to build the data center infrastructure needed for AI. Which tech executive in 2025 reportedly said "I am willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race" with regard to AI?

a. Jensen Huang
b. Larry Page
c. Elon Musk
d. Mark Zuckerberg

2. Fueled by the AI boom, Nvidia became the first ever company to hit $5tn in market capitalization in Oct'25, a valuation that exceeds the combined GDP of how many of the 50 states in the USA (ranked from smallest to largest)?

a. 20
b. 28
c. 36
d. 44

3. Trade policy was a big global focus in 2025 as US tariff rates rose to their highest level since the Great Depression. At one point this year, the US imposed a tariff rate of 145% on which trading partner?

a. China
b. Switzerland
c. Brazil
d. India
e. Canada

4. President Trump signed 217 executive orders in the first 11 months of his 2nd term of office, a pace matched by which of the following US presidents in the past century?

a. Ronald Reagan
b. Richard Nixon
c. Joseph Biden
d. Franklin D. Roosevelt
e. Gerald Ford

5. Which of the following countries was President Trump referring to when he said, "We need _________. And the world needs us to have _________"?

a. Venezuela
b. Greenland
c. Canada
d. Ukraine

6. The US government spent $7.1tn in the past 12 months. Approximately, how many years would it take you to spend $7.1tn if you spent $100 every second of every day?

a. 300 years
b. 1,300 years
c. 2,300 years
d. 3,300 years

7. Interest payments on US government debt in the past 12 months amounted to approximately how much per every citizen in the USA?

a. $500
b. $1,500
c. $2,500
d. $3,500

8. The US labor market started to show signs of slowing in 2025, led by a rise in youth unemployment. How many 20-24 year olds in the US are currently unemployed?

a. 1 million
b. 1.5 million
c. 2 million
d. 2.5 million

9. The K-shape economy describing the growing gap between the consumption of the rich & poor was all the rage in 2025. By how much has the US equity market boosted US household wealth in 2025?

a. $5 trillion
b. $7 trillion
c. $9 trillion
d. $11 trillion

10. In US politics the Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral election in November. What percent of people under the age of 30 voted for him?

a. 48%
b. 58%
c. 68%
d. 78%

11. The next US midterm election will occur next November 3rd. In the 16 elections since 1962 what has been the average S&P500 price performance in the 12 months leading up to the midterm election?

a. Negative
b. Flat
c. +5%
d. +10%
e. +15%

12. Based on current probability data (Kalshi/Polymarket), which of the following is the most likely Democratic ticket (President & Vice President) in the US 2028 presidential election?

a. Gavin Newsom & Pete Buttigieg
b. Kamala Harris & Pete Buttigieg
c. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez & Zohran Mamdani
d. Gavin Newsom & Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
e. Kamala Harris & Tim Walz

13. Global politics have turned more populist in the 2020s. In the 43 national elections in the past 18 months, how many incumbent presidents and/or majority parties were voted out of office?

a. 12
b. 18
c. 24
d. 32

14. The past 2 years have been characterized by big monetary easing. There have been 316 global central bank rate cuts in the past 24 months, a pace that exceeds the 24 months after which of the following crises?

a. The burst of Dotcom bubble (Mar 2000)
b. The bankruptcy of Lehman & the GFC (Oct 2008)
c. The start of Covid-19 pandemic (Mar 2020)
d. All of the above

15. The pace of global rate cuts is expected to slow in 2026. Which of the following two central banks are expected to raise interest rates in 2026?

a. Bank of Japan
b. Bank of England
c. Swiss National Bank
d. Reserve Bank of Australia
e. European Central Bank

16. Turning to the price action on Wall St…which of the following has been the best performing global equity sector in the past 3 years?

a. US tech
b. Japanese banks
c. China tech
d. European banks

17. If the S&P 500 returns more than 10% in 2026, it would be the fourth consecutive year of double-digit returns, a streak seen how many times in the past 100 years?

a. Once
b. Twice
c. Three times
d. Four times

18. And if the price of gold rises more than 10% in 2026, it would also be the fourth consecutive year of double-digit returns, a streak seen how many times in the past 100 years?

a. Once
b. Twice
c. Three times
d. Four times

19. In 2022, one ounce of gold could buy 15 barrels of oil. How many barrels of oil could an ounce of gold buy today?

a. 40
b. 50
c. 60
d. 70

20. Which of the following is the best performing currency in 2025 versus the US dollar?

a. Swiss Franc
b. Mexican Peso
c. Russian Ruble
d. Israeli Shekel
e. Swedish Krona

21. And in the bond market, which of the following did not happen in 2025?

a. Italian government bond yields fell below French yields
b. Chinese government bond yields fell below Japanese yields
c. US HY corporate bond spreads fell to a record low
d. US IG tech bonds spreads fell to the lowest since 1997
e. Argentina issued a dollar bond for the first time in 8 years

22. Meme-based coins were big news again in 2025 with the launch of $Trump coin in January. There were 121 meme coins in 2021. By how many times has the number of meme coins increased since 2021?

a. 10x
b. 20x
c. 30x
d. 40x

23. US equities accounted for 72% of all inflows to global equity funds in 2024. What was the figure in 2025?

a. 45%
b. 55%
c. 65%
d. 75%

24. Which of the following two corporations saw the yield of their corporate debt fall below US Treasury yields in 2025?

a. Microsoft
b. Johnson & Johnson
c. Apple
d. Google
e. Amazon

25. Bank of America is the Official Bank of the FIFA World Cup 2026™, which kicks off in Canada, Mexico and the United States in June. Which of the following was the most watched sporting event of all time?

a. 2025 Super Bowl LIX (Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
b. 2022 FIFA World Cup final (Argentina vs. France)
c. 2023 ICC Men's Cricket World Cup final (India vs. Australia)
d. 2024 heavyweight boxing bout between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul

*  *  *

Quiz Show Answers

1. b. Larry Page…Google's co-founder reportedly at an internal meeting.

2. b. 28…Nvidia's market cap of $5tn is equivalent to the combined GDP of the smallest 28 states in the US (VT, WY, AK, SD, MT, ND, RI, ME, WV, DE, HI, NH, ID, NM, MS, AR, NE, KS, OK, IA, NV, KY, UT, AL, LA, OR, CT, SC).

3. a. China…at the height of tit-for-tat tariff escalation in April, US hit China with a 145% tariff rate

4. d. FDR…FDR signed 219 executive orders in 1937 and 313 executive orders in 1941.

5. b. Greenland…Trump commented in March that the US needed Greenland for national security purposes.

6. c. 2300…it would take 2256 years to spend $7.1tn if you spent $100 every second of every day.

7. d. $3500…$1.2tn of interest payments divided by the US population of 340 million.

8. b. 1.5 million…as of Sep'25, highest number of unemployed 20-24 years olds since May'21 (youth unemployment rate was 5.5% in 2023 and is now 9.2%).

9. c: $9tn…US household equity wealth rose by $9tn in 2025 (as estimated by BofA private client data).

10. d. 78%...78% of NYC voters under age of 30 years voted for Mamdani according to ABC News exit polls.

11. a. negative…S&P 500 index averaged -1% in 12 months leading up to US midterm elections since 1962.

12. d. Gavin Newsom & Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez…latest odds from Kalshi and Polymarket say Newsom (37%) & AOC (11%) are two front-runners for Democratic nominee for president in 2028.

13. d. 32…including US, Germany, UK, France, Korea, and Japan.

14. d. all of the above…closest comp is 313 global rate cuts in 24 months post-Lehman.

15. a & d. Bank of Japan & Reserve Bank of Australia…bond markets currently predict 100% probability. of at least one 25bp rate hike by BoJ & RBA.

16. b. Japanese banks…Topix banks index up 297% in the past 3 years vs. European banks (268%), US tech (268%), China tech (127%).

17. c. Three times…1942-1945, 1949-1952, 1995-1999.

18. b. Twice…1971-1974, 1977-1980.

19. d. 70.

20. c. Russian Ruble…up 45% YTD vs US$.

21. c. US HY corporate bond spreads…they did not fall to a record low in 2025.

22. d. 40x…there are currently 5026 meme coins with a total market cap in excess of $40bn.

23. a. 45%...US equities accounted for 45% of all inflows into global equities in '25.

24. a & b. Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson…the 30-year debt for both companies traded below the 30-year yield for US Treasuries on Aug 15th.

25. b. 2022 FIFA World Cup final (Argentina vs. France)…1.5 billion viewers, the highest viewership ever for a single sporting match.

What’s your score?

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