Rate-Cut Odds Plunge As ISM Services Inflation Index Surges Near 2-Year-High

With 'soft' survey data trending lower (and PMIs mixed), analysts expected this morning's ISM Services data to print higher (catching up to S&P Global's PMI surge in December) and they were right.

ISM Services surged to 54.1 (from 52.1 prior and better than the 53.5 expected)

Source: Bloomberg

However, below the surface things are not so awesome as Prices Paid exploded from 58.2 to 64.4 and employment slipped to 51.4...

Source: Bloomberg

Producers remain challenged by a strong dollar, potential tariffs (Trump Effect) and general uncertainty from dockworkers’ contract negotiations that are set to resume Tuesday.

'Inflation' expectations are at their highest since Feb 2023 - The market is no longer pricing in a full cut by July...

... not at all what Powell and his pals want to see (or maybe it is).