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Trump Victory

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 - 10:40

 

Trump during his victory speech.
Trump during his victory speech. 

An Incredible Comeback 

This time in 2020, how many would have expected Trump to not just win in 2024, but to win in such convincing fashion? As I write this, it looks like Trump is on track to win 312 electoral votes, and the popular vote as well. And on top of that, his coattails flipped the Senate and look like they will hold the House too. 

Let's look at some of the early reactions to this extraordinary win. 

Denial 

As of 4am this morning, neither the New York Times, nor the Wall Street Journal, nor MSNBC had acknowledged Trump's victory. Incredibly, the Prime Minister of the UK beat them to that. 

Trump's opponent Kamala Harris hadn't acknowledged his victory either, refusing to concede on Election Night despite getting thoroughly beaten. 

Despair 

Lots of long faces at Kamala's watch party at her alma mater, Howard University. 

As with Hillary eight years ago, Kamala sent a surrogate in to tell her supporters to go home, without going to see them herself. 

Discredited 

Pollsters Ann Seltzer, who's latest poll predicted that Kamala would win Iowa by 3 points, and Nate Silver, who raised the possibility of Kamala winning Florida, were both discredited. 

Ironically, Silver's own data predicted a Trump win, but he ignored it, and called the election a coin toss. 

If you look at the row highlighted in yellow in the image above, Silver says that a Democratic advantage of between 0% and 1% in the national poll average translated to an 88% probability of a Trump win (Silver's national poll average had Kamala ahead by 0.9%). 

Barack Obama's political magic has officially expired. 

Reappraisal 

A few observers started to rethink claims about the 2020 election. 

Appreciation 

The Prime Minister of Hungary acknowledged Trump's incredible comeback and saw it as a victory for the world. 

Elon Musk reminded us of what Trump had to survive to get to this point. 

And Jonathan Keeperman saw the hand of Providence at work. 

Russia And The Ukraine 

The Deputy Head of Russia's National Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, bid good riddance to Kamala, and promised Russia's "Special Military Operation" would continue. 

The Ukrainian military decided to withdraw from the Russian region of Kursk. 

And Ukrainian President Zelensky was quick to congratulate Trump and attempt to curry favor with him. 

Markets

Trump's chances of victory on betting markets approached 100%. 

Those of you who signed up for Kalshi and bet on Trump after I wrote about that here last week ("Betting On The Election") have more money now. 

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) hit a new 52-week high after hours. 

In a trade alert earlier this week, we added another long-term bet on Tesla, a call spread that will generate a 300% gain if Tesla hits $350 by the end of next year. 

Bitcoin hit an all-time high overnight. That should be good news for the Bitcoin miner I wrote about here, Bit Digital (BTBT). 

Green Energy stocks got hammered (How many times has Trump raged about how windmills were ugly and killed birds?). 

If you are concerned one of your current holdings may end up out of favor under the new regime, consider hedging them. You can do so with the Portfolio Armor iPhone app, which you can download here, or by aiming your iPhone camera at the QR code below. 

Looking Ahead 

We're researching a few ideas that could outperform in second Trump term. If you'd like a heads up when we place a trade on them, feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

 

If you'd like to stay in touch

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