The Only Thing You Need to Read About Iran

Let’s be clear about the situation in Iran.

Perhaps 100 people in the entire world know the reality about what is transpiring between the U.S./ Isreal and Iran.

1. 1. Those people, with few exceptions, are NOT talking to the media or posting online. The stakes are too high.
   2. The ones who are talking to the media/ posting online are doing so for strategic purposes (misdirection, strategic deception, bluffing, etc.)

If you think you know what’s happening because you read what “geopolitical_genius_guy” posted on X or because you listened to “military-influencer” on TikTok or a podcast, you’re gravely mistaken.

Consider the following facts about Iran…

From a geopolitical perspective:

1. Iran is bordered by seven nations on land (Iraq, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) and five nations by water (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia).
2. Iran is 90% Shia, the segment of Islam that has been in perpetual conflict with Sunni Islam since the mid-600s AD. Iran’s neighbor and the other dominant Middle Eastern power, Saudi Arabia, is Sunni.
3. Iran has strong economic ties to China (the latter purchases 90% of Iran’s oil exports) and strong military ties to Russia (Iran supplies drones and missile technology to Russia).
4. Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow (~30 mile wide) shipping lane through which 20% of global oil and liquified natural gas is shipped.
5. Iran is extraordinarily wealthy in terms of natural resources, possessing the fourth largest oil reserves in the world, 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world, the largest zinc and lead reserves in the world, etc.

In terms of domestic issues:

1. Iran is ethnically diverse. Roughly 50% of the country is Persian, but the other half is comprised of 13 other ethnicities/ tribes.
2. Since 1979, Iran has been controlled by a Osulgarayan, (roughly translated as Principalists): hardline religious leaders. They control the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the judiciary, the Guardian Council, and most state institutions. Many of these leaders have been killed during this conflict, but the Principalists remain in control of the country’s miliary/ economic resources at the time of this writing.
3. Iran is a young country in terms of demographics:  Roughly 50% of its population of 98 million are under the age of 30. These individuals grew up with the internet and other resources that allowed them to see the world through a more secular/ western perspective. They are frustrated by the current regime/ political structure and in favor of political reform. There have been widespread protests, but at the time of this writing, reformers have yet to seize power.

Put simply, this is an EXTREMLY complicated issue. You cannot simply point to a few details pertaining to this situation and draw a clear conclusion as to how the conflict will play out. The people speaking with great conviction about this situation are at best delusional and at worst making things up for clicks/ eyeballs.

So, what are we to do?

Watch and wait.

One of the great fallacies of current society is the notion that we need to do something, or figure something out immediately. Life doesn’t work that way. Sometimes the only thing you actually can do is wait to see how something plays out.

Sure, it’s frustrating, especially for a society that is addicted to instant gratification, but geopolitics isn’t a movie or Instagram reel.

I hope this helps.

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research