Battered BTC — From Obsession to Apathy
BTC technicals
We outlined our latest BTC logic in our note "BTC myths are breaking..." on Jan 21 (here). BTC has crashed since then, trading at the lowest levels since Trump won the election. The big trend line is long gone as we trade well below the 100 and the 200 day MA. $70k is the next support to watch. Momentum is so poor, you almost want to try a few longs...
Source: LSEG Workspace
HS?
BTC broke below the head-and-shoulders neckline some time ago. If the pattern is valid, there’s still room to the downside. Note that the 100-week MA has now been taken out.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Still a shitty hedge
BTC remains a poor VIX hedge. Contrary to a lot of narratives, BTC has actually acted as an inverse VIX hedge.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Still a risk on/off instrument?
If BTC still captures aggregate market psychology, that widening gap versus NDX should make you uneasy.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Crypto adoption in reverse
Adoption significantly declined in 2025 in the US.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Even youngsters losing interest
2025: Crypto adoption rate decreased from 24% in January to 18% in December for those aged 18-34, and 22% in January to 15% in December for those aged 35-54.
Source: DB
Outflows
Daily flows into ALL BTC ETFs. Outflows to 10 straight days (last inflow, January 15). New record.
