Bitcoin Bros Are Back?
Bros are back?
BTC putting in the biggest up day since May (as of writing). Note we have almost reversed the entire bear candle from yesterday. 21 day moving average and the short term negative trend line come in slightly higher. Let's see if resistance holds, or if we squeeze big above it?
Source: LSEG Workspace
The VIX connection
You don’t normally compare trending assets to mean-reverting ones, but BTC and the VIX have traded in tight short-term tandem several times this year. Unless BTC has fully decoupled from the risk-on/off framework, that gap vs. the VIX (inv) looks juicy.
Source: LSEG Workspace
The tech connection
BTC vs. NDX gap absolutely massive.
Source: LSEG Workspace
The liquidity connection
Liquidity still tight, but is easing...
Source: JPM
The switch
We outlined our gold vs. BTC "switch" logic months ago. Time to think about the inverse?
Source: LSEG Workspace
The 20/40 range
BTC/Gold ratio has traded inside the 20/40 range since 2024. Could we see BTC put in a relative bounce vs. gold here?
Source: LSEG Workspace
Hammer Strategy
MSTR out in a massive hammer during yesterday's violent session. We do not like to catch falling knives as a general strategy, but whenever we see such big hammers, we tend to "try a few". Last time we saw a similar hammer candle in MSTR was back in Feb 2024, just before the massive squeeze kicked in. Not saying same will happen, but still...
Source: LSEG Workspace
