Bitcoin Gets Massacred: Narrative Dead, Structure Broken
Benjamin Bitcoin
Like Benjamin Button, Bitcoin has been sold as anti-fiat money, gaining value as dollars age into dilution. Before 2025, that narrative held: BTC rose with falling USD and expanding global M2. Since 2025, the relationship has flipped. Bitcoin now trades less like anti-fiat money and more like a growth asset, moving with the NASDAQ-100 and reacting positively to dovish Fed pivots and negatively to hawkish ones, leaving the original thesis looking increasingly frayed. (Stifel's great macro team)
Note weekly RSI approaching the lowest reading in "forever".
Source: LSEG Workspace
That HS
We flagged the massive BTC head-and-shoulders not long ago (here). The neckline break was aggressive and the free fall has picked up speed.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Fast market
Bitcoin RSI at 21.5 earlier today was "bad"... but we are now at 17.9, most oversold since June 2022.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Approaching
Bitcoin's 200 weekly MA approaching, currently just below the $60k level.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Reviving
Bitcoin volatility finally showing some stress...
Source: LSEG Velodata
How low can it go?
Applying the "normal" 70% drawdown would imply $38k for BTC.
Source: Stifel
That Jaws gap
Hard to disagree with Stifel's Bannister: "Bitcoin (like NASDAQ 100) moves with dovish vs. hawkish Fed shifts, and recent ‘hawkish cuts’ are ominous for both".
Source: LSEG Workspace
The fiat money hedge
That stopped working a while ago, but people still talk about it as a narrative.
Source: Stifel
What about the liquidity connection?
Bitcoin once thrived on excess dollar liquidity. That relationship broke in 2025. Trading old narratives is dangerous...
Source: Stifel
Bitcoin and large tech
Since mid-year lows, tech credit stress has risen, dragging Bitcoin lower as it trades like a speculative tech asset. Bitcoin also tracks Large Cap Growth relative to Value, making the joint selloff particularly notable.
