Remember Fear?
Remember fear?
We’ve been laying out the logic for volatility to rise over the past week, positioning was complacent, spot was flat, and the pressure was building underneath. Now the cracks are starting to show, particularly in tech, where volatility metrics are flashing stress signals across the board.
Tech stress
VXN continues to trade at a historically wide premium to VIX, highlighting persistent stress in tech. The divergence underscores how concentrated the pressure remains beneath the surface.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Trending higher
VXN vs VIX ratio has trended higher since the summer.
Source: LSEG Workspace
There is a connection
There is a strong connection between the JPY as a carry trade and tech. NASDAQ volatility has picked up most of the sharp JPY appreciations over the past years.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Skew you
We’ve been flagging the sharp rise in SPX skew over the past few weeks. The move has been aggressive, especially considering SPX has gone nowhere for months, a clear sign of building under-the-hood stress.
Source: LSEG Workspace
NDX as well
NDX put-call skew has exploded higher, now trading not far from Liberation Day panic levels. The crowd is nervous about tech downside.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Got hedges?
For those nervous about another pullback over the next month, VIX call spreads remain one of the cleanest hedges on the board.
Structure GS derivs team likes:
VIX 18 March ’26 20 / 40 call spread costs $1.45 (ref 19.32f), offering roughly 13x max payout if fully in the money.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Could get "nasty"
VIX shorty is rather aggressive here...
Source: GS
Would be perfect
VIX seasonality from here is very strong...
