The Squeeze Is Rotating
NVDA isn’t the trade anymore
While NVDA stalls, pockets of squeeze are emerging elsewhere — software, silver, and Korea are where the panic currently lives.
Nothing NVDA
NVDA remains trading inside the range that has been in place since last July. We aren't getting excited until we get a proper break out, either direction. In our view this is dead money for longer...
Source: LSEG Workspace
Dispersion shift?
SOX down while IGV trades higher, a dynamic many forgot was even possible. With NVDA weighing on semis and software starting to show signs of life, the spread could compress further from here.
Source: LSEG Workspace
What could possibly go wrong?
If the Pentagon leans further into Claude, embedding frontier AI into defense, intelligence, and mission-critical systems, it doesn’t just validate AI software, it detonates the “AI = chips only” narrative by proving sovereign-level monetization is real.
In a deeply oversold IGV where positioning is structurally underweight and short exposure is heavy, that kind of institutional endorsement could trigger a violent unwind and flip a consensus dead-money trade into a squeeze. The software short is crowded — and crowded trades rarely exit in an orderly fashion. More on this topic here and here.
Source: GS
IGV can
IGV has now printed three straight up days, backed by solid volume. The 21-day is just overhead, a break and close above it could fuel additional upside.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Watching carefully
NDX continues to lose longer-term momentum and is close to triggering a bearish crossover, with the 50-day moving average nearing the 100-day. These setups take time to play out, but it’s one worth watching.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Silver: Upside Panic
Skew extreme
Silver risk reversal at 20 year highs. Latest on silver here.
Source: DB
The real deal
Silver miners at ATHs, spot silver not confirming.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Korea: Full Squeeze Mode
Upside panic
The derivatives market clearly shows signs of "get me in at any price".....KOSPI VIX has exploded to the upside as people are getting "desperate" to buy the KOSPI (up another 3.7% overnight). Spot up, volatility up playing out in full motion. Latest note on the crazy squeeze in Korea here.
Source: LSEG Workspace
What a stock
We have covered the KOSPI superstar SK Hynix over the past months. The stock continues doing what it does best, consolidate and then explode higher. The latest surge is no different. Note we are getting very far from the 21 day MA...
Source: LSEG Workspace
Aiming for the stars.
Samsung means "three stars". The second Korean wonder, Samsung, looks as if it is aiming for the stars. The stock added another 7% overnight, leaving the 21 day way behind as RSI prints new highs. Chart 2 shows daily RSI at the highest levels since 1994.
Source: LSEG Workspace
