Three Charts to Watch: What If MOVE Starts to Move?

The 10 year and MOVE

The U.S. 10-year continues to trade within the trend channel in place since the October lows. 4.2% remains a major support level to watch. Bond volatility (MOVE) has been dormant for a long time, but note the recent uptick.

Source: LSEG Workspace

 

Bond vs equity vol

Bond volatility has been resetting for almost a year now and the gap vs VIX has gotten wider lately, despite the little uptick in the MOVE index. Chart 2 shows bond vs NASDAQ volatility.

Source: LSEG Workspace

 

Source: LSEG Workspace

 

Perfection

SPX and MOVE (inverted) have traded in perfect tandem since "forever". Let's see how this plays out, but the last little uptick in MOVE should be watched closely.

Source: LSEG Workspace