Trump Turbocharges Markets
Trump on steroids
3x small caps ETF, TNA, is the big winner.
Source: Refinitiv
Bitcoin's break out
BTC in uncharted territory post the Trump win. A close here or higher and things could get very big for BTC. Note the recent golden cross...
Source: Refinitiv
Unwinding hedges
Unwinding of short dated hedges is point one in Scott Rubner's list of mechanical buying going forward. Index put/call ratio was very extreme going into the event. Another chart we have been pointing out for weeks is elevated skew.
Source: GS
Source: Refinitiv
Volatility control and risk parity
These strategies puked equities in size during the early August crash. They are still running a big "implied short"...
Source: GS
Source: GS
The biggest bid
The corporate buyback VWAP bid is back, and this is the strongest 2 month period of the year for the biggest buyer. Scott Rubner estimates: "~$6B worth of daily vwap demand in the 19 trading days of November."
Source: UBS
They de-grossed
As we pointed out yesterday, there was notable last minute de-grossing in markets.
Source: GS
Not only Trump
US economic surprises have been surging, and the dollar loves it.
Source: Refinitiv
Less Fed cuts
Trump win = less Fed cuts. Higher inflation will likely lead the Fed to pause rate cuts in 2025, writes Nomura. Chart shows their new forecast.
Source: Nomura
Shitty Europe
We have outlined just how poor Europe is doing in two thematic notes over the past 2 weeks ("Europe's in deep shit", here and here). Trump is not helping soggy Europe. The SX5E puked today, despite some early FOMO bids, with the index closing well below the 200 day and big support levels (despite the fact the euro crashed).
Source: Refinitiv
Europe is stressed
V2X had some elections premium that got reset...but Europe is far from out of the woods.
