Will We See The Normal "Stock Down Vol Crushed" Post NVDA Earnings?
Into the print
Here is everything you need to know ahead of NVDA earnings mid-week. The view from the options market as well as ownership, short sell data and more.
Vol into earnings
The 1m ATMF implied volatility for NVDA is currently at a median level of approximately 50, which aligns closely with the levels observed in May 2025 and May 2024.
In comparison, the implied volatility during the previous two Q4 periods was significantly higher, ranging from 60 to 70, indicating that current volatility is relatively subdued.
Source: GS vol trading desk
Skew
1m put-call skew for NVDA is around 0.14, higher than the SPX average put-call skew of 0.12. Investors are assigning greater downside risk to NVDA compared to the broader market.
Source: GS vol desk
The post earnings vol crush
Narrowing down to the normalized implied volatility change over the past two years, there has been a notable volatility crush, with levels dropping from 55 to 43.
Source: GS vol desk
More on that vol crush
This is how implied volatility developed the days after the most recent earnings.
Source: GS vol desk
Staying over-night?
This chart shows to what extent volatility is driven by intra-day or over-night in NVDA.
Source: GS vol desk
Under-owned
NVDA the most under-owned mega-cap tech stock according to Morgan Stanley.
Source: MS
1% sell
Perhaps under-owned by institutions but still a massive consensus long among analysts. This chart shows the analyst recommendation spread over time.
Source: Marquee
NVDA short interest
The short interest as % of market cap has increased from summer lows.
Source: FactSet
Not number 1 anymore
Here's a list of the 15 best performing S&P 500 stocks over the last 5 years.
Comfort Systems (FIX) even better than NVDA with an annualized return of 87%. NVIDIA gets silver at 65.7%.
Source: Bespoke
Not even number 1 AI stock
Not even number one AI stock when measured as short term performance. Performance over the past 6 months: SK Hynix +234%, Samsung el +171%, NVDA +3%.
