The Wrap: Rotations Heat Up - and Volatility Sleeps… For Now
Well ahead
Russell well ahead of NDX over the past 6 months.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Small cap tech as well
Small cap tech beating NDX by a huge margin over the past 10 days.
Source: LSEG Workspace
That's new
Trannies leaving tech behind...Chart 2 shows the two since 2023 in %.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Source: LSEG Workspace
That NVDA gap
Can we even do this without NVDA? More "disturbing" charts here.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Let the trend be your friend
"Monthly growth in spending on OpenAI subscriptions has slowed down in major European markets."
Source: DB
What's up bros?
MEME and NDX moved in perfect tandem during the sell off, but MEME momos haven't been able to keep up with the bounce in stocks. Crap trying to tell us something about the psychology of the market?
Source: LSEG Workspace
The Bid
The corporate buyback is strong, but make sure to not forget the "roll over" coming up.
Source: UBS
Unstoppable?
Japan 30 year putting in another new big up candle, trading at 3.43% as of writing. We took out a huge consolidation when the long end broke above the 3.3% level. Still a lot of vacuum to the upside, should we aim for the upper part of the trend channel. Full note here.
Source: LSEG Workspace
XLV
On November 26 (here) we outlined our logic on healthcare and the fact the entire sector had gotten ahead of itself "XLV daily RSI at most overbought levels since 2018...". Fast forward to today and hot XLV has come down substantially since recent highs. The steep trend line is still lower, coming in around $152 (21 day). 50 day all the way down at $147.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Not yet...
…but soon. VIX seasonality becomes very strong in a few weeks. Latest note on volatility and hedging here.
